半年报后基金重仓股整体市盈率预计降20%

YONGHUA.NET 来源: 发布时间:2007-08-02 08:41:00 发布人: 浏览: 人次

    自5月末至7月末的两个月时间内,基金重仓股的市盈率水平明显提升。按2006年财务数据计算的基金重仓股的静态估值目前已不低,但是按照2006年下半年业绩和估算的2007年上半年业绩计算出来的最近四个季度的动态市盈率,则较静态市盈率有接近20%的降幅。

   截至7月31日,基金二季报披露的353只基金重仓股中有62只披露了中报数据,174只发布中报业绩预告。聚源e财讯系统提供的数据显示,公布中报的62家公司中期净利润合计为110.51亿元,较去年同期的64.03亿元同比增长72.59%;发布中报业绩预告的174家公司中,有126家公司中期预增,12家公司预盈,合计占到基金重仓股的39.1%,而预平公司3家,预亏公司5家、预降4家、预警1家,合计占比仅为3.7%。总的来看,353只基金重仓股2007年中期业绩整体向好毫无悬念。

  以7月30日收盘数据计算,这353家公司A股市值138436.78亿元,占整个A股市场192836.00亿元A股市值的71.79%;353家公司已上市流通A股市值39479.18亿元,占整个A股市场64015.63亿元已上市流通A股市值的61.67%。从利润占市场总体比例来看,这353家公司2006年末合计净利润(含亏损)3491.40亿元,占全部上市公司3939.82亿元的88.62%,应该能代表整个市场中最具有投资价值的群体。

  聚源数据研究所还对353家基金重仓股的业绩参考业绩预告进行了估算。基于审慎原则,业绩预增公司按照增长幅度的下限计算,预盈的公司按照预计利润的下限额度计算,预亏公司则按照亏损的上限计算,预减公司按照最大下降幅度计算。已公布中报的公司,用2007年中期业绩来计算;没有发布业绩预告的公司,则用2006年中期业绩来估算;没有2006年中期净利润数据的新上市公司,则采用2006年末净利润除以2来估算。这样计算得出,这353家基金重仓股2007年中期预计净利润合计2273.14亿元,同比2006年中期的1575.28亿元,净利润增加697.86亿元,增幅为44.3%。与前期聚源数据研究所的文章对照,可以发现上市公司业绩增长主要来源于基金重仓股。

  聚源数据研究所再使用上市公司2006年下半年业绩和估算的2007年上半年业绩,计算353家基金重仓股最近四个季度的动态市盈率。结果显示,与采用2006年末期财务数据计算的静态估值比较,动态市盈率有接近20%的下降。


  部分半年报后市盈率有较大降幅的基金重仓股一览

股票         股票         2006年净利润(万元)    2006年静态市盈率            2007年中报净利润(实际或预估)            中期净利润                动态市盈率(最近四个季度)(倍)    市盈率变化幅度(%)    业绩预告

代码         名称                                (倍)                     (万元)                                    增幅(%)                                                                               

600643        S 爱 建     1549.98             578.99                     17859.84                                 200.00                    66.69                             -88.48                 07年中期业绩增长200%以上

600469        风神股份     1229.67             333.25                     6044.14                                 462.84                    66.09                             -80.17                    

002064        华峰氨纶     5942.19             166.02                     18955.32                                 1254.11                 41.98                             -74.71                 净利润18955.32万元

600219        南山铝业     17295.68             223.03                     51782.55                                 550.00                    63.12                             -71.70                 07年中期业绩增长550%以上

000572        海马股份     10047.75             166.08                     27749.20                                 626.51                    49.11                             -70.43                    

601998        中信银行     372600.00             109.89                     335340.00                                 80.00                     33.08                             -69.89                 中期净利润增长80%以上

600739        辽宁成大     47008.21             86.00                     100893.46                                 800.00                    29.58                             -65.61                 07年中期业绩增长800-900%

000831        关铝股份     4917.04             147.65                     11145.45                                 400.00                    52.48                             -64.46                 07年中期业绩增长400-500%

600206        有研硅股     1787.92             267.39                     3692.72                                 500.00                    98.26                             -63.25                 上半年净利润增长500%以上

600030        中信证券     237104.09             82.53                     407923.69                                 550.00                    33.61                             -59.28                 半年度业绩增长超过5.5倍

000655        金岭矿业     6866.23             114.44                     8406.30                                 725.42                    47.29                             -58.68                    

000952        广济药业     1566.49             507.75                     2414.25                                 350.00                    230.93                             -54.52                 中期净利润增长350-450%

600685        广船国际     29361.66             97.99                     41412.02                                 450.00                    45.49                             -53.57                 半年度业绩增长450%以上

000061        农 产 品     5001.58             169.74                     3998.21                                 334.94                    79.33                             -53.26                 中期净利润增长约5700万元

600104        上海汽车     142492.00             109.88                     216346.11                                 300.00                    51.38                             -53.24                 07年中期业绩增长300%以上

000917        电广传媒     1942.22             337.91                     2431.04                                 800.00                    159.95                             -52.67                 中期业绩增长超过800%

600710        常林股份     3413.86             121.28                     5851.47                                 150.00                    57.52                             -52.57                    

600641        万业企业     14370.37             79.10                     28585.48                                 116.14                    38.23                             -51.66                    

600586        金晶科技     6032.74             95.34                     9125.61                                 187.58                    47.99                             -49.66                    

600252        中恒集团     1966.35             205.58                     2395.24                                 400.00                    104.12                             -49.35                 07年中期业绩增长400%以上

000046        泛海建设     25526.19             154.56                     28679.64                                 565.60                    79.07                             -48.84                    

600169        太原重工     8056.28             111.43                     11495.01                                 200.00                    57.11                             -48.75                 半年度净利润增长200%以上

000960        锡业股份     21257.92             110.54                     23202.25                                 600.00                    57.11                             -48.33                 累计净利润增长600-650%

000755        山西三维     13260.99             88.76                     17933.28                                 220.04                    46.00                             -48.18                    

000031        中粮地产     17442.83             136.30                     24115.47                                 200.00                    70.93                             -47.96                 净利润增长200%以上

000059        辽通化工     8931.43             90.74                     13938.46                                 140.00                    47.50                             -47.65                 上半年净利上升140%

000612        焦作万方     27572.75             63.86                     37354.85                                 194.42                    33.71                             -47.22                    

600031        三一重工     55734.41             78.51                     72713.23                                 200.00                    41.99                             -46.52                 07年中期业绩增长200%以上

000825        太钢不锈     242360.17             33.26                     256974.12                                 280.00                    18.67                             -43.86                 中期净利润增长280-330%

000623        吉林敖东     38792.30             92.08                     40336.54                                 300.00                    51.73                             -43.82                 07年中期业绩增长300-400%

000616        亿城股份     14278.52             54.87                     10596.21                                 2260.56                 30.89                             -43.71                    

600177        雅 戈 尔     75500.83             88.47                     95869.32                                 150.00                    50.22                             -43.24                 利润同比增长150%以上

600740        山西焦化     3415.44             165.80                     5156.80                                 100.00                    94.47                             -43.02                 上半年净利润上升100%以上

600570        恒生电子     4191.00             85.31                     3511.40                                 900.00                    48.64                             -42.99                 母公司中期增长900%左右

600111        稀土高科     7905.86             178.30                     7966.70                                 285.27                    102.11                             -42.73                    

002038        双鹭药业     5032.10             105.39                     5596.46                                 171.72                    61.89                             -41.28                    

600993        马 应 龙     7187.12             58.68                     8914.49                                 125.33                    34.72                             -40.82                    

600622        嘉宝集团     8065.51             62.18                     9123.78                                 150.00                    37.04                             -40.43                 07年中期业绩增长约150%

600122        宏图高科     1879.31             260.55                     2402.07                                 100.00                    158.96                             -38.99                 07年中期业绩增长100%以上

600750        江中药业     7632.33             75.06                     8418.18                                 100.00                    45.94                             -38.80                    

000527        美的电器     50547.22             84.78                     62910.66                                 100.00                    52.26                             -38.36                 07年中期利润增加100-150%

601628        中国人寿     960100.00             141.96                     1163400.00                                100.00                    88.40                             -37.73                 中期净利润增长100%以上

600718        东软股份     7967.43             154.69                     7477.37                                 150.00                    98.96                             -36.02                 07年中期业绩增长150%以上

600202        哈 空 调     10675.69             41.43                     8735.24                                 186.80                    27.03                             -34.77                    

000667        名流置业     11689.42             97.02                     12783.55                                 89.94                     63.92                             -34.12                    

600118        中国卫星     5515.37             150.82                     4757.57                                 139.31                    100.41                             -33.43                    

000758        中色股份     33211.34             60.16                     13120.71                                 50.00                     40.11                             -33.33                 中期净利润增长50-100%

601318        中国平安     598596.20             102.46                     598596.20                                 100.00                    68.31                             -33.33                 半年度业绩增长100%以上

股票         股票         2006年净利润(万元)    2006年静态市盈率            2007年中报净利润(实际或预估)            中期净利润                动态市盈率(最近四个季度)(倍)    市盈率变化幅度(%)    业绩预告

代码         名称                                (倍)                     (万元)                                    增幅(%)                                                                               

002008        大族激光     8875.22             118.62                     7620.40                                 137.76                    79.22                             -33.22                 净利润76204021.40元

600396        金山股份     6511.52             100.35                     5317.84                                 150.00                    67.35                             -32.89                 上半年净利润增长150%以上

600765        力源液压     1267.77             332.37                     1215.22                                 100.00                    224.68                             -32.40                 母公司中期增长100%以上

600192        长城电工     2825.99             151.36                     2624.51                                 99.71                     103.41                             -31.68                    

000001        深发展A     130290.65             58.03                     104314.65                                 125.00                    40.16                             -30.79                 上半年利润增长125%-145%

600517        置信电气     6796.75             111.70                     6012.09                                 100.00                    77.45                             -30.67                 07年中期业绩增长100%以上

000718        苏宁环球     7231.00             227.81                     5246.35                                 150.00                    158.71                             -30.33                 1-6月利润增长150%—220%

002093        国脉科技     2968.87             230.45                     2678.19                                 87.48                     162.19                             -29.62                    

601166        兴业银行     379825.59             55.03                     331702.42                                 90.00                     38.92                             -29.26                 07年中期业绩增长90%以上

600036        招商银行     710752.60             61.67                     559812.80                                 100.00                    44.25                             -28.25                 07年中期业绩增长100%以上

600655        豫园商城     17214.00             110.13                     14975.70                                 80.00                     79.42                             -27.88                 07年中期业绩增长80%

000951        中国重汽     22440.80             79.55                     17183.44                                 100.00                    57.52                             -27.69                 中期业绩同比上升100%以上

001696        宗申动力     11660.15             80.48                     9841.89                                 80.00                     58.52                             -27.28                 07年中期业绩增长80-105%

600298        安琪酵母     7646.39             111.22                     6934.27                                 70.48                     80.89                             -27.27                    

000024        招商地产     56791.24             77.69                     34716.36                                 150.00                    56.84                             -26.84                 半年度净利润增长150%左右

002024        苏宁电器     72030.01             104.91                     51401.87                                 100.00                    77.32                             -26.30                 07年中期业绩增长100-120%

000422        湖北宜化     21513.58             42.61                     17309.58                                 79.18                     31.43                             -26.23                    

000826        合加资源     4574.83             92.08                     3338.08                                 93.49                     68.08                             -26.07                    

600309        烟台万华     82595.88             79.89                     60616.93                                 90.27                     59.26                             -25.83                    

600005        武钢股份     389700.62             25.42                     261949.02                                 100.00                    19.03                             -25.15                 中期净利润增长100%以上

600511        国药股份     8461.12             70.74                     7361.55                                 60.87                     53.22                             -24.77                    

600269        赣粤高速     82363.94             22.26                     54174.96                                 100.00                    16.75                             -24.75                 中期净利润增长100%左右

000698        沈阳化工     8562.01             61.67                     8438.51                                 50.00                     46.42                             -24.73                 大幅上升50%~100%

600582        天地科技     20656.20             79.08                     10849.91                                 134.84                    60.75                             -23.17                    

000418        小天鹅A     4134.51             119.04                     3733.53                                 50.00                     91.50                             -23.14                 07年中期业绩增长50-120%

000680        山推股份     24199.37             57.89                     21776.02                                 50.00                     44.53                             -23.07                 07年中期业绩增长50-100%

000837        秦川发展     4053.88             96.06                     3614.01                                 50.00                     74.05                             -22.91                 07年中期业绩上升50-100%

600325        华发股份     14225.55             97.53                     11153.92                                 57.26                     75.87                             -22.21                    

002128        露天煤业     39523.58             74.90                     30970.99                                 56.72                     58.35                             -22.09                    

000932        华菱管线     106804.37             21.03                     60456.66                                 100.00                    16.39                             -22.06                 07年中期业绩增长100-150%

601111        中国国航     319138.10             49.41                     94717.80                                 2000.00                 38.52                             -22.04                 中期净利润增长2000%以上

000963        华东医药     8335.13             93.06                     6883.91                                 50.00                     72.97                             -21.59                 07年中期业绩上升50-100%

600439        瑞 贝 卡     10087.52             101.45                     7627.72                                 56.89                     79.62                             -21.52                    

600062        双鹤药业     16489.34             59.22                     13551.66                                 50.00                     46.49                             -21.50                 07年中期业绩增长50%以上

000858        五 粮 液     117011.75             107.31                     113954.38                                 39.14                     84.24                             -21.50                 中期净利润113954.38万元

600016        民生银行     383182.60             53.73                     277333.92                                 60.00                     42.26                             -21.35                 07年中期增长60%以上

000768        西飞国际     6313.16             285.26                     5609.61                                 43.81                     224.49                             -21.30                    

000933        神火股份     40242.89             48.02                     32429.01                                 50.00                     37.85                             -21.17                 07中期业绩增长50%以上

600089        特变电工     21638.71             88.68                     17199.54                                 50.00                     70.11                             -20.95                 上半年净利润增长50%以上

000157        中联重科     48090.02             63.49                     38176.15                                 50.00                     50.21                             -20.92                 07年中期业绩增长50-100%

600100        同方股份     16062.32             131.50                     12692.63                                 50.00                     104.09                             -20.85                 上半年净利润增长50%以上

600900        长江电力     361912.62             46.47                     226094.62                                 71.55                     36.87                             -20.67                    

600067        冠城大通     11384.30             99.25                     8886.39                                 50.00                     78.76                             -20.65                 07年中期业绩增长50%以上

000402        金 融 街     52549.64             71.21                     27052.66                                 100.00                    56.64                             -20.47                 07年中期同比增长100%以上

600814        杭州解百     4653.90             74.10                     3465.54                                 50.00                     59.01                             -20.36                    

601398        工商银行     4933600.00            38.86                     3771450.00                                50.00                     30.97                             -20.31                 07年中期业绩增长50%以上

  注:加灰底为已公布中报,2007年中报净利润预估算法详见文中表述。数据来源:聚源数据
 
 

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